Foreign currency mortgage

A foreign currency mortgage is a mortgage which is repayable in a currency other than the currency of the country in which the borrower is a resident. Foreign currency mortgages can be used to finance both personal mortgages and corporate mortgages.

The interest rate charged on a Foreign currency mortgage is based on the interest rates applicable to the currency in which the mortgage is denominated and not the interest rates applicable to the borrower's own domestic currency. Therefore, a Foreign currency mortgage should only be considered when the interest rate on the foreign currency is significantly lower than the borrower can obtain on a mortgage taken out in his or her domestic currency.

Borrowers should bear in mind that ultimately they have a liability to repay the mortgage in another currency and currency exchange rates constantly change. This means that if the borrower's domestic currency was to strengthen against the currency in which the mortgage is denominated, then it would cost the borrower less in domestic currency to fully repay the mortgage. Therefore, in effect, the borrower makes a capital saving.

Conversely, if the exchange rate of borrowers domestic currency were to weaken against the currency in which the mortgage is denominated, then it would cost the borrower more in their domestic currency to repay the mortgage. Therefore, the borrower makes a capital loss.

When the value of the mortgage is large, it may be possible to reduce or limit the risk in the exchange exposure by hedging (see below).

Managed currency mortgages can help to reduce risk exposure. A borrower can allow a specialist currency manager to manage their loan on their behalf (through a limited power of attorney), where the currency manager will switch the borrower's debt in and out of foreign currencies as they change in value against the base currency. A successful currency manager will move the borrower's debt into a currency which subsequently falls in value against the base currency. The manager can then switch the loan back into the base currency (or another weakening currency) at a better exchange rate, thereby reducing the value of the loan. A further benefit of this product is that the currency manager will try to select currencies with a lower interest rate than the base currency, and the borrower therefore can make substantial interest savings.

There are risks associated with these types of mortgages and the borrower must be prepared to accept an (often limited) increase in the value of their debt if there are adverse movements in the currency markets.

A successful currency manager may be able to use the currency markets to pay off a borrower's loan (through a combination of debt reduction and interest rate savings) within the normal lifetime of the loan, while the borrower pays on an interest only basis.

Forex scam

A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ^[1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times ^[2]. "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal. ^[3] The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud." ^[4]

“In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists.”^[5]

In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.”^[6]

The forex market is a zero-sum game^[7] , meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.

These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits, ^[8] improperly managed "managed accounts", ^[9] false advertising, ^[10] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. ^{[4] [11]} It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment. ^[12]

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.^[13]

An official of the National Futures Association was quoted ^[14] as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically..." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds. ^[1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"

Determinants of FX Rates

The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):

(a) International parity conditions viz; purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.

(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate). This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.

(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate) views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”

None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.

Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.

Economic factors

These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.

1. Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
2. Economic conditions include:

   Government budget deficits or surpluses

   The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.

   Balance of trade levels and trends

   The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.

   Inflation levels and trends

   Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising [. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.

   Economic growth and health

   Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.

   Productivity of an economy

   Increasing productivity in an economy should positively influence the value of its currency. Its effects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector [3].

Political conditions

Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a profound effect on currency markets.

All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in India, Pakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region may spur positive or negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.

Market psychology

Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:

Flights to quality

Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality," with investors seeking a "safe haven." There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The Swiss franc has been a traditional safe haven during times of political or economic uncertainty.^[12]

Long-term trends

Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends. Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise from economic or political trends. ^[13]

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact"

This market truism can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a market being "oversold" or "overbought".^[14] To buy the rumor or sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias known as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance of outside events to currency prices.

Economic numbers

While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect: the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.

Technical trading considerations

As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns.^[15]

Foreign exchange autotrading

Forex autotrading is a trading strategy where forex buy and sell orders are placed automatically based on an underlying system or program. The buy or sell orders are sent out to be executed in the market when a certain set of criteria is met.

Autotrading - and systems, or programs to form buy and sell signals -, are used typically by active traders who enter and exit positions at a much higher rate than the average investor. There are also a wide range of systems that differ on the set of criteria used to generate the buy or sell signals. Typically, the criteria used are more technical in format - in that they focus on price movement and technical indicators

History

Forex autotrading originates at the emergence of online retail trading, since about 1996 when internet-based companies created retail forex platforms that provide a quick way for individuals to buy and sell on the forex spot market. Nevertheless, larger retail traders could autotrade Forex contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as early as in the 1970s.

Types

Today, there are two major types of Forex autotrading:

Fully automated or robotic Forex trading: This way of autotrading is very similar to algorithmic or black-box trading, where a computer algorithm, or Expert Advisor (EA), decides on aspects of the order such as the timing, price, or quantity or initiation of the order without human intervention. Users can only interfere by tweaking the technical parameters of the program; all other control is handed over to the program. Examples of such robotic EA’s are, Fapturbo, PipZu etc.

Signal-based Forex autotrading: This autotrading mode is based on the concept of auditing traders all over the world and making their strategies available to anyone interested in the form of signals. Then traders have the ability to automatically convert any of these signals to real trades in their broker accounts. Human interference here is augmented; signals come from live traders while users can actively select to follow a Signal Provider whose strategy fits their risk profile. Examples of such platforms are: ZuluTrade, Rent a Signal etc.

Advantages

An automated trading environment generates fewer trades per market than a human trader can handle, it can of course replicate its actions across multiple markets and timeframes. Furthermore, it is far less restricted in the number of intermarket opportunities it can observe and act upon. An automated system is also unaffected by the psychological swings that human traders are prey to. This is particularly relevant when trading with a mechanical model, which is typically developed on the assumption that all the trade entries flagged will actually be taken in real time trading[2].

Signal Provider based models have the advantage that they offer traders the opportunity to follow previously successful signal providers or strategy with the hope that the advice they offer will continue to be accurate and lead to profitable future trades. An added advantage is the accessibility offered by these programs as traders do not need to have expert knowledge on Forex but only have to select a system, making Forex trading possible to anyone.

Forex autotrading services can be offered for free, on a spread basis (ZuluTrade) or on a one time fee basis (Fapturbo).

Regulation

As an unregulated and highly profitable market, the Forex market is extremely attractive to scammers. Forex autotrading, as it brings Forex trading to the masses makes even more people susceptible to frauds. Bodies such as the NFA and the SEC issue warnings and rules to avoid fraudulent Forex trading behavior on the web[3].

Retail forex

In financial markets, the retail forex (retail off-exchange currency trading or retail FX) market is a subset of the larger foreign exchange market. This "market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to The New York Times^[1]. Whilst there may be a number of fully regulated, reputable international companies that provide a highly transparent and honest service, it's commonly thought that about 90% of all retail FX traders lose money. ^{[2] [3]}

It is now possible to trade cash FX, or forex (short for Foreign Exchange^[4] (FX)) or currencies around the clock with hundreds of foreign exchange brokers through trading platforms. The reason that the business is so profitable is because in many cases brokers are taking the opposite side of the trade, and therefore turning client capital directly into broker profit as the average account loses money. Some brokers provide a matching service, charging a commission instead of taking the opposite site of the trade and "netting the spread", as it is referred to within the forex "industry."

Recently forex brokers have become increasingly regulated. Minimum capital requirements of US$20m now apply in the US, as well as stringent requirements now in Germany and the United Kingdom. Switzerland now requires forex brokers to become a bank before conducting FX brokerage business from Switzerland.^{[citation needed]}

Algorithmic (automated) trading has become increasingly popular in the FX market, with a number of popular packages allowing the customer to program his own rules.^{[citation needed]}

The most traded of the "major" currencies is the pair known as the EUR/USD, due to its size, median volatility and relatively low "spread", referring to the difference between the bid and the ask price. This is usually measured in "pips", normally 1/100 of a full point.^{[citation needed]}

According to the October 2008 issue of e-Forex Magazine, the retail FX market is seeing continued explosive growth despite, and perhaps because of, losses in other markets like global equities in 2008.

History

While forex has been traded since the beginning of financial markets, on-line retail trading has only been active since about 1996 . From the 1970s, larger retail traders could trade FX contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.^[1]

By 1996 on-line retail forex trading became practical. Internet-based market makers would take the opposite side of retail trader’s trades. These companies also created retail forex platform that provided a quick way for individuals to buy and sell on the forex spot market.^{[citation needed]}

In online currency exchange, few or no transactions actually lead to physical delivery to the client; all positions will eventually be closed. The market makers offer high amounts of leverage. While up to 4:1 leverage is available in equities and 20:1 in Futures, it is common to have 100:1 leverage in currencies.^[1] In the typical 100:1 scenario, the client absorbs all risks associated with controlling a position worth 100 times his capital.

Currencies are quoted in pairs, for example EUR/USD (euro versus United States dollar). The first currency is the base currency and the second currency is the quote currency. A person who is short the EUR/USD will have a loss if the USD loses value and make a profit if the EUR loses value. A person who is long the EUR/USD will make a profit if the USD loses value and have a loss if the EUR loses value.

What is a forex broker?

Have you ever felt intrigued by the many advertisements on high leverage and great profit potential involved in currency trading? The golden gate of the kingdom of money, we are told, is reached by the road of forex. Are forex brokers highway robbers infesting that road, or honest dealers making our journey easier? We'll discuss the brokerage business in this article.

A forex broker is the mediator between the retail and wholesale forex markets The wholesale market is comprised of banks and similar large institutions, and the retail market, of course, includes individual traders who are seeking to acquire speculative gains. Forex brokers are not traders themselves, but occasionally they will have their own staff trading the market on their behalf.

Forex brokers allow retail traders to interact with the markets, and are compensated for their services through the bid-ask spread which is the difference between the price a trader must accept to sell (bid), and the price he must pay to buy(ask) a currency. Since forex traders suffer losses often, brokers make the utmost effort to protect themselves. First, they net out the positions of their clients with entries on the opposite side. Since the vast majority of forex traders lose money, by entering the opposite order they usually make profits. And they also protect themselves by activating margin calls in case that a trader's account value falls below a threshold level (margin requirement).

At the inception of the forex brokerage business, retail trading was largely unregulated as authorities did not possess the expertise and background for effective oversight. Today, however, numerous regulatory bodies which include the CFTC in the U.S., the BaFin in Germany, and the FSA in the U.K. ensure a healthy, legal and competitive environment by maintaining strict regulation of the business. As such, one of the most important considerations for a beginning forex trader is guaranteeing that the broker is regulated by the relevant national authority.

In general, today's laws and regulations do not protect forex traders in the same way that stock traders are protected. Accounts opened with online stock brokers are usually protected against broker insolvency by up to $100000, and yet there is no equivalent protection for forex traders. UK-based brokers are required to segregate client assets from the firm's own capital, and so, creditors cannot press claims against forex traders if an FSA regulated broker goes bankrupt.

Forex trading is a great, profitable career for the committed individual. And a carefully scrutinized, patiently selected broker can be an excellent partner for a successful forex trader. Ultimately, finding the right broker is not just about screening forex broker lists, but improving our own discipline, and analytical skills in determining what we want from trading. Set your goals right, and you can reach them in due time. Vacillate in defining your aims, and success will likewise hesitate to come your path.


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